Kosuke Fukudome will be entering his first year in Major Leagues after several in Japan. He will join a list of several players to make the jump, but few have had as much success as Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui. So I gathered some stats from these players final season in Japan, their average Japanese stats, and their first year in Japan. After looking at the chart, check out the comparisons and projections below.
- Hits and at bats went up due to the increase in the MLB compared to the Japan league, but batting average changed. Matsui saw his average drop .050 from his first MLB season to his last Japan year, and Ichiro’s drop about .030 in the same situation. Ichiro’s average in his first MLB season was equal to his Japanese career batting average, but Matsui’s average was about .020 lower than his career average.
o Fukudome projection: expect to see a decrease in his .353 batting average, probably more in line with his career .305 average.
- Runs batted in don’t really change, but home runs significantly decrease. Ichiro’s and Matsui’s RBI numbers did not change much compared to their last Japan year or average Japan career stats. But home runs dropped for each. Ichiro, who is not much of a home run hitter, hit 7 less homers his first MLB year compared to his Japanese average. Matsui, known as ‘Godzilla’ for his home run power, hit 34 less homers his first MLB season, and 19 less homers compared to his average.
o Fukudome projection: expect a decrease in home runs but by how much is the question. His last Japan year he hit 31, but his career average was 21. I would not expect to see a large number of home runs early in the season when the wind is blowing in, but he has a good chance to hit some when the wind shifts in the summer.
In conclusion, I would expect to see a slight decrease in Kosuke Fukudome’s offensive stats, but what he brings to the table as an overall player should help the Chicago Cubs chances of repeating as division champs… and maybe ending that 100 year drought.
